Conventional wisdom is that Democrats are in trouble as midterm elections approach in November 2010. First, it is important to remember that the election is still 10 months away, which is an eternity in politics. I believe the death of the Democratic Majority is greatly exaggerated.

The past couple of days have been particularly strange as far as conventional wisdom is concerned. Senators Dodd and Dorgan announced they will not seek reelection, but they are the first two Democratic Senators to do so. Meanwhile, *six* Republican Senators announced their retirements last year. If the number of retirements is a measure of the health of a party, it appears that the Republicans are in worse shape.

Also note that several of the Republican vacancies are in swing states; Florida, Ohio, Missouri, and New Hampshire. Democrats are likely to be very competitive in these states, meaning that it is even possible for Democrats to pick up seats in the Senate in 2010. Yes, Senator Dorgan's retirement was a surprise and likely means a lost seat, but the Democratic Party should be very happy to enter this year's election with the current vacancy landscape.